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Economists forecast that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will increase by 110,000 in June, slowing from the 139,000 jobs added in May. The Unemployment Rate is expected to edge higher to 4.3%, up slightly from May’s revised 4.2%.
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a key wage inflation metric, are projected to rise 3.9% year-over-year, matching May’s pace.
Analysts at TD Securities expect a moderate job gain of 125,000, citing a slowdown in private sector hiring based on Homebase data. They also see the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3%, reflecting higher continuing claims during the survey period.
Additionally, TD notes that monthly wage growth may ease to 0.2%, down from 0.4% in May, with overall risks tilted to the downside for this month’s report.
President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed Congress this week, bringing sweeping changes to taxes, energy, and healthcare. It extends 2017 tax cuts, eliminates taxes on tips and overtime, and restores major corporate deductions, giving businesses more certainty for long-term investments. In energy, the bill ends clean energy subsidies faster than expected while boosting fossil fuels like coal, drawing criticism from industry leaders.
The bill also cuts $900 billion from Medicaid, with the CBO warning that over 11 million people could lose coverage by 2034, raising concerns over healthcare access. While business groups applaud the legislation, many lawmakers and experts highlight its costly and potentially harmful effects on vulnerable Americans.
This week, oil traders reacted sharply to Middle East ceasefire developments, after prices surged in late June due to the brief Israel-Iran conflict. Brent Crude peaked on June 23, gaining over 30% in three weeks, as fears over the Strait of Hormuz closure spiked war premiums. Following the U.S.-brokered ceasefire, oil saw its biggest two-day drop since 2022, erasing much of the gain.
Funds dumped 95,000+ crude contracts, slashing Brent net longs by 29%, as safe-haven flows faded fast. Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues modest output hikes, while U.S. production faces pressure below $70. Markets are now watching for fresh geopolitical flare-ups, OPEC+ signals, and U.S. jobs data to gauge direction into next week.
Global Manufacturing Stabilizes in June with PMI Above 50
In June, global manufacturing showed signs of stabilization, with output and new orders returning to growth after several months of contraction. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3, crossing the neutral 50 mark for the first time in three months. Output increased to a four-month high of 51.3, supported by growth in China, the U.S., Japan, and India, while some countries like the UK, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia faced declines.
Employment continued to fall but at the slowest pace since August 2024, with job gains seen in the U.S., Japan, and India. New orders improved, driven by expansions in China and the U.S., offsetting declines elsewhere. Despite these improvements, business optimism remained subdued, and price pressures varied globally, with inflation rising sharply in the U.S. but easing in China and the eurozone.
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